IDEA Series - THE GONDOLA

 The IDEA series is just that, some crazy ideas, some pragmatic ones, that seek to enrich and strengthen our City.

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Yup, you probably have heard about the Gondola! Yes it has been given over to the public domain and the casual bounce around of crazy ideas in town - sometimes mocked, sometimes advocated. 

I first wrote about this in 2011 on my blog Stronger Kamloops, and then put it again in the 2012 book Stronger Kamloops on page 174. That book didn't exactly make a splash, but it did get around, and that year Arjun held his Idea Fest, where the idea further got around.

Why do I feel like bringing this up again? Well an idea, however misunderstood and teased, that has pervaded for a decade, ought I think to get a fair account of its true proposal. So without ambling too much:

The Qualifier:

In order to be used/effective new Public Transit has to be four things, and it HAS to be all four. Without being all four of these things for its demographic, it is unlikely to succeed except in special circumstances:

1. Faster than the Alternative (faster than driving, walking, other transit routes, etc.)
2. Cheaper or the Same as the Alternative 
3. More Convenient (if I have to walk further than the bus stop, or change modes too many times, or wait too long...)
4. Connect two places of mixed-use and significant density/origins-destinations

This route has the ability, with some planning, to accomplish all of these things, but would have to happen in concert with other initiatives in order to be effective.

 

The Route:

Mac Island to West End of TRU to Aberdeen Mall (where the TNRD Library is proposed). Ropeways need to be in a straight line from station to station in order to maintain speed and maintain a reasonable cost. Vertically they can navigate extreme topography, they just can't turn.

Logistics:

This route is 4km long. It could be extended to Norkam or further into Aberdeen and could be moved to be closer to the existing campus at TRU - but those route choices have mediating factors, primarily land access/privacy as well as not connecting mixed-use nodes. Most other Urban Gondolas, including the approved SFU gondola, and the built out Portland Aerial Tram faced significant challenges in privacy and property rights components. This project would uniquely be able to cross only a couple of private parcels (Walmart, Home Depot, BC Hydro, TRU owned property) and run near to, but not over, private houses on the Hudson's Ridge Development. 

Privacy on Hudson's Ridge could be easily managed with elevation, trenching and berms - while air rights over the strip commercial developments are relatively easy to manage in comparison to hundreds of private homes.

So considering the logistics of this project compared to most Urban Ropeway projects, this is fairly manageable.

Depending on the technology utilized, ropeways have average operational speeds between 22kph and 45kph. Selected table from the Edmonton Urban Gondolas in Public Transit Report below:

Using this information @ 25kph the travel time point-to-point would be as follows:

Including estimates for finding parking by Google Maps, the same trips driving are as follows:

And using current Bus Transit:

Compared to Driving, the Gondola would be a significant improvement to TRU. Parking at TRU, and the increasing rarity of said parking relative to demand, will continue to improve the performance of the Gondola relatively. As traffic in Kamloops steadily gets more congested, these times will improve as the Gondola is not impacted by traffic congestion. Compared to current Bus transit, the results are incomparable. 59 minutes with transfers from the North Shore to Aberdeen cannot be compared to under 10 minutes.

There is three important mitigating factors. Two in favour of the gondola, the other against. 

For driving, finding parking takes a lot of extra time that is not usually accounted for in driving distances. During busy events at the TCC, Mac Island or during the school year at TRU, these can be significant. 

However, it is unlikely that you are just "at" the point of each station. You still need to get to the stations. That is why the dense, mixed-use nodes that are well connected to the rest of the City at each end are a requirement of transit success. Folks are not going to drive from Brock or Westsyde, to circle to park, to take the gondola. There needs to be plenty of students and faculty in the areas around the stations commuting to TRU, people in hotels in Aberdeen going to the Tournament Capital facilities, etc. Though there is a concept here known as induced demand, which is that people are likely to move to areas around these stations over time, as their commute will be improved compared to other areas of town as a result. Frequent, connected transit can also support in the future.

Also, the Gondola, unlike Buses or Rail, have no dead head time (empty time between the garage and route) and have a constant frequency. If you miss a bus it could be 15min-1 hour wait for the next one at this time. The gondola is along every few seconds, and every minute of operation is utilized for users.

Existing Connections:

While connecting TRU to significant residential centers popular with students, the Gondola actually leverages a number of parts of the Tournament Capital Plan, and other general needs beyond just the University.

• TCC (and TRU) to MacArthur Island
• the two largest investments and sports/events facilities in town which often co-host large events, with events happening concurrently at each facility. Visitors and locals alike attending events at these parking poor and high value areas can access them quickly from major population centers around town
• Aberdeen Hotels to TCC/Mac Island
• nearly all Kamloops hotels are in this area, generating significant trips to the Tournament Capital Facilities. Combined with a shuttle bus loop around the hotels, perhaps free, and as frequent as every couple of minutes, means visitors coming to town for events can park once at the hotel and go about their day, just like they do at competitive sports and conference places Whistler, Sun Peaks and Downtown Kelowna.
• Kenna Cartwright to more people
• Kenna is the premiere nature park in Kamloops with commanding views of the entire City, lake and surroundings. The North Shore in particular has a massive deficit of park space (other than Mac Island, which is primarily sporting facilities) and certainly not nature parks, despite having both the highest residential density in the City and nearly half the Cities population. A recreational connection, not requiring driving to Kenna or other Nature Parks would be huge. The same is true for folks on-campus looking to access a large park area.
• Overcoming the Hills for Cycling
• Combined with transit and cycling, active transportation from such disparate destinations as Brock to the Southgate Industrial Area become simple and fast
• This is a huge part of the backbone success of cycling in the Netherlands
• TRU to Off-Campus Housing, Jobs, Recreation, Amenities
• TRU is in a Housing Crises, this is not news. The North Shore is in active re-development with many large under-developed lots perfect for student housing surrounded by amenities (Northhills, Cottonwood among others to be described later)
• Most students do not drive either due to licensing or cultural differences between countries, economic realities or philosophical ideologies 

The Cost:

4km - 3 Stations. The cost estimates based on Urban Ropeways around the world but the 1.6km - 3 station Tlemcen in Algeria at $14.7m as the closest comparable. Using Tlemcen, on a per/km cost basis, the Kamloops Gondolas 4km project would cost around $36m. 

Cost estimates for the SFU/Burnaby Mountain Gondola are many factors higher than this, however it includes air rights for hundreds of properties, considerable land acquisitions and integration into the SkyTrain system. The closest actually built BC projects would include Whistlers Peak to Peak Gondola in 2017 at $51m for 3.3km in a single span. 

Averaging for these costs and many comparables compiled in Edmonton's recent Urban Gondolas in Public Transit Report (selected table below) an extrapolated cost of something reasonably high in performance could be estimated at about $15m per km including stations. That would put the total cost at an estimated $60 million.

Capital Funding:

$60 million is not an insignificant investment. The City currently owns $1.2 billion in Capital Assets, a $60 million asset would be 5% of the balance sheet. In comparison the Tournament Capital Program cost $37.6 million is 2007 ($53.7 million in 2022 dollars). The justification for the Tournament Capital project was predicated largely on civic amenity and secondary economic spin-off, and the TCC is a subsidized facility that does not return money to the tax payer, but costs the tax payer despite user fees and tournaments. In 2017 the TCC alone cost $1.1 million, combined with other arenas and parks, the tax load is about $4 million per year. In the 2019-2023 Financial Plan, the facilities budgets start around page 44, with the TCC on Page 50. The economic spin-off and Civic amenity remains the justification for these facilities, which truth be told, are top notch facilities I am proud to have in our City.

So on a basic investment premises, would a gondola create a comparable economic and quality of life spin off comparable to the TCC? The investment compared to the size of the budget of the day would about about equal. In comparison to the controversial $90+ million dollar performing arts center, would a gondola have a comparable economic and quality of life spin off for the average Kamloops resident?

Luckily, I do not feel the need to directly answer this question. It is my belief that land sale and development at the terminus of each station could fund the entire capital of the project, avoiding substantial debt, and leveraging any economic or quality of life spin off, without leaving the taxpayer on the hook for the capital investment.

Transit-Oriented Development

Surface parking is always the lowest use of land. Utilizing only the existing surface parking areas as development lots, with the same or greater number of stalls being able to be accommodated underground and in structured parking, using public-private partnerships land being sold for development should be able to fetch between $120-$150 per Square Foot. Using only the existing surface parking in the areas around the transit stations, and ignoring the other land that could be leveraged, there is a minimum of $160m in land to leverage:

While the sale of this land could easily cover the Capital Costs of build the Gondola and Stations, Transit Oriented Development, as deployed in most of Europe, Asia and many Cities with solid transit systems in North America - by building mixed-use density nodes around these Centers you are solving one of the hardest riddles currently ailing North American Planning:

we need mixed use density to support housing affordability, climate change, pollution, quality of life, failing city budgets

- but -

we don't have the transit to support it, existing neighbourhoods struggle with it politically, and until we have integrated transit around mixed-use communities its not practical to have car-light areas

This helps to solve the riddle by creating new transit connected nodes and centers outside of the traditional mixed use nodes of Downtown and Tranquille. By connecting each of those effectively to these centers we can help supercharge the transit effectiveness of Kamloops and creating pedestrian oriented opportunities in broad areas where the OCP has already directed it to be. 

The development potential of these sites have the capability of hosting a wide range of unit and unit types, generating the potential at only medium densities maxing out at 3/4 stories, of 2400+ homes. By utilizing budget surpluses, public/private partnerships, land trusts, co-ops and other tenancy and financing mechanisms, the embedded affordability potential is massive. All without BC Housing, provincial subsidy or other mechanisms.

Of course, selling only as much land as needed is on the table as well. Partnering on the built projects in P3 relationships could mean even greater gains for the taxpayer. Leveraging that extra land for further amenity, parks, and other public spaces or even further transit investments (more, smaller, frequent buses) could all be on the table. We could also look at fancier options. We could afford stations, towers, cars, seating and access at $40+ million per km.

These build outs would absolutely take time. Kamloops does not have the labour or absorption rate to dump thousands of units on the market all at once. A phased build out would be mandatory with dozens of development partners at various scales within the project - stacked townhomes, row houses, triplexes and apartments of various scales all able to find a place. That said, with affordability in mind, there is alot of space for adding rentals to the market without impacting the viability of existing projects, perhaps making them more viable giving their trades and workers places they can actually afford to live.

Economic Spin-Off

• Private Land Development
• dependable transit access and mixed-use nodes could easily spurn hundreds of millions of dollars of private land development in under-developed, surface parking or vacant land zones surrounding a 10-15 minute walk from each station. 
• Better/Larger/Integrated Tournaments and Events
• Conferences using TRU, sports events and others will be able to leverage far larger crowds without generating significant road traffic and mitigating the effects of drink driving, and the constraints of money-losing current parking lots.
• Workforce Housing and Access to Employment
• Aberdeen and the North Shore both generate significant employment opportunities for students who are unable to transport themselves in the odd-hours that their employment during the school year requires - or the 59 minute each way bus trips inhibit. That constrains local business growth, public service and employment opportunities for students and young people without access to private vehicles.
• Tourism
• The Portland Aerial Tram sees 15% of its 4000 riders per day as Tourists and General Public with 85% as OSHU hospital traffic. I expect the tourism component in Kamloops to be able to be leveraged much higher in the Summer months than downtown Portland - however the combination of Aberdeen Mall, TCC, TRU, Mac Island and residential density will make this gondola busy at more times, in more directions.
• Oh and we may as well make mention of the various commercial opportunities at each station with view restaurants and the like
• Integration into Kenna 

Singapore

Operation:

As a simple thought experiment, compared to say a bus, the gondola has significant efficiencies. Lifties at ski resorts only need a couple workers at each station with some maintenance personnel  to operate at efficiencies of 6000 persons per hour. You would need over 100 buses to achieve that capacity. Buses can't recover energy going downhill, in fact their brakes take extra wear. The counterweight of the rope systems are what allowed funiculars for hundreds of years be simply operated with water cisterns and illiterate operators in dozens of countries. The gondola cars come faster than every minute. Buses are simply incapable of that.

So it should be no surprise that operationally running the gondola would be relatively inexpensive. The Portland Aerial Tram requires $2.7 million per year to operate. The Roosevelt Island Tram costs $3.9 million. Let us suggest that this would operate at $4 million a year to be conservative. In comparison our bus system costs $17m per year, with 51 buses. That puts each bus at about $350,000 a year per bus, however alot of the admin that is in the transit budget now would not be duplicated with growth, so the average cost of a bus is closer to $500,000-$650,000 each.  Adding the gondola to the operating budget is about the same as adding 8 buses to our system, but adding 15x the capacity. 

Due to a constant power load at a fixed location, batteries are unnecessary for electric power as they would be for a bus. As well, alternative "green" power solutions including micro-hydro in the river, solar and wind, to be able to subsidized power costs year round. As much as half of pollutants from vehicles come from brakes, tires - a gondola will outperform any gas or electric vehicle by leaps about bounds. So energy costs compared to electric buses or conventionally fueled buses would be lower, and its operation would be significantly more environmentally friendly.

The Summary:

Is it faster, cheaper, more convenient and does it connect mixed-use nodes of density to each other? Would it be capable of being a success? 

It is a long shot, many components would need to happen in tandem. It would require strong political will. It has a clear property sale and development opportunity that could fund its Capital Costs without needing significant debt. It could provide great improvements to the Tournament Capital Program. It could provide kick starts to new areas as transit oriented development and provide accesses to new housing opportunities to TRU Staff and Students - combined with dependable and affordable transit.

As a counterpoint to transit projects in other Cities, we have City and TRU owned land that can be sold/leased/partnered on/developed to fund the infrastructure in comparison to other transit projects which need to purchase large amounts of land. The financial ability to actually deliver this project is there and is real.

However the current traffic in Kamloops is not creating a strong push for solutions to problems that many people do not have to confront for more than a couple minutes a day. Unlike traffic to SFU affects people in an already congested Burnaby. 

This is an "opportunity" based proposal more than a problem based proposal. As many issues affecting our City right now can illustrate, our democracy is not good a responding to opportunities, and not even really to problems, until they become big problems. Getting the political will together for a future thinking opportunity when we have immediate crises of housing, climate and safety right now seems like a gross misallocation of time and resources. That said, it was failing to take advantage of oppurtunites 40 years ago that led to the very crises we have now. 

As land use densifies, as Kamloops becomes larger, more metropolitan, failing to take advantage of transportation infrastructure opportunities now, especially in mass-transit, will only make transportation into a crises 40 years from now.

Further this Gondola concept bakes its ridership right into the recipe - the transit and housing units are developed with each other in mind.

So to answer the question set out in the beginning. Can this project meet what I have identified as the 4 criteria of success?

1. Is it Faster?
1. Yes, compared to driving due to congestion and parking, will only get faster relatively
2. Yes, compared to current transit, would be many factors faster from residential areas
3. Yes, compared to driving from an Aberdeen Hotel to TCC facilities
4. Yes, compared even to walking to TRU as so few residential areas surround it
2. Is it Cheaper?
1. Fares the same or cheaper than the bus, and much cheaper than parking at TRU
2. It is much more cost effective operation than expanded bus services
3. Is it More Convenient?
1. For people who currently rely on the bus, absolutely
2. For people who currently drive, it would be comparable
3. Combined with Transit Oriented Development and connections to surrounding areas, it would be much more convenient in these areas, again as the congestion and parking struggles get worse with City growth
4. Does it provide Worthwhile existing Connections?
1. Absolutely, especially for TRU folks looking at the North Shore or nearby parts of Aberdeen
2. Absolutely for folks using and attending events at Tournament Capital and TRU staying in Hotel Row in Aberdeen
5. Does it provide Worthwhile Future Connections?
1. Absolutely, TOD development will create further City Nodes, when connected to other ones like Tranquille, the North Shore Town Center, Brock Center, Downtown and others will bolster and build a strong, connected alternative to driving from many City Origins and Destinations

This is absolutely the zaniest and craziest of ideas. But then again, consider CP building spiral tunnels through Kicking Horse pass to access remote tourist destinations connected to steamships and grand hotels. They built tea houses and huts at high elevation. There is no doubt that Canadians are capable of far more zany and ambitious projects. Change is coming to Kamloops, people are moving here, many more. The workforce we need to support our aging population need affordable places to live and affordable ways to get around. Perhaps like Calgary's Peace Bridge helped to highlight and spark active transportation infrastructure investments there, a project this ambitious is what is needed here.

11 urban gondolas changing the way people move